US Dollar Outlook: Bearish Outlook as Inflation Uncertainty and Tariff Risks Pressure DXY

All market data (will open in new tab) is provided by Barchart Solutions. The Quote Overview page gives you a snapshot view for a specific index. New delayed trade updates are updated on the page as indicated by a “flash”. Over the last few months especially, there’s been a lot of focus in the world of Currency Trading upon the state of the US Dollar. No matter what your opinion is of the Greenback, it is still, without question, regarded as the world’s primary reserve currency and holds its weight of recognition across the board.

USD/JPY extends downside to near 152.60 as USD weakens across the board

FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Natural gas beaxy exchange review and cocoa futures posted double-digit percentage gains in December 2024. The worst-performing futures markets were palladium and world sugar futures, with over 8% declines.

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is stuck in a game of Cluedo, and detective Fed Chairman Powell is not giving away much to nearly no clues.
  • The dollar was undercut by Friday’s weak US retail sales report and a -5 bp decline in the 10-year T-note yield, which added to Thursday’s decline of -9 bp.
  • This pushed traders to scale back expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, strengthening the dollar.
  • Results are interpreted as buy, sell or hold signals, each with numeric ratings and summarized with an overall percentage buy or sell rating.
  • The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated.
  • The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Weak Retail Sales and Global Factors Add Pressure

Regardless, the technical picture of Teucrium CORN, SOYB, and WEAT funds grew more interesting heading into 2025. My late friend and long time CBOT floor reporter Gary Wilhelmi used to cringe at the mention of Turnaround activity, so I still mention it occasionally in memory of him. The commodity complex in general took a breather overnight, not overly surprising given recent moves made by many markets. It’s just another Wednesday morning, another first day of the positioning week for funds, https://www.forex-world.net/ with Watson waiting to see what comes out of Washington.

What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target?

The week began with a stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed a 0.5% monthly rise, exceeding the 0.3% forecast. This pushed traders to scale back expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, strengthening the dollar. However, later in the week, the Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index (CPI) report pointed to lower-than-expected core inflation, causing a reversal in sentiment. The Barchart Technical Opinion widget shows you today’s overall Barchart Opinion with general information on how to interpret the short and longer term signals. Unique to Barchart.com, Opinions analyzes a stock or commodity using 13 popular Forex forecasting analytics in short-, medium- and long-term periods.

Daily digest market movers: Powell is right on the money

  • The week began with a stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed a 0.5% monthly rise, exceeding the 0.3% forecast.
  • The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against the other world reserve currencies, broke out to the upside after the early November U.S. election.
  • The worst-performing futures markets were palladium and world sugar futures, with over 8% declines.
  • James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement.
  • The economic calendar is gearing up for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who will give a speech for the second day in a row at Capitol Hill.
  • The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

The economic calendar is gearing up for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who will give a speech for the second day in a row at Capitol Hill. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Waller are set to make comments as well. For the major indices on the site, this widget shows the percentage of stocks contained in the index that are above their 20-Day, 50-Day, 100-Day, 150-Day, and 200-Day Moving Averages. The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Friday’s US Jan retail sales report of -0.9% was weaker than expectations of -0.2%. Excluding autos, Jan retail sales fell by -0.4%, weaker than expectations of +0.3%. Jan “control group” retail sales, which excludes volatile sectors, fell by -0.8%, weaker than expectations of +0.3%. However, the retail sales report was undercut to some extent by the wildfires in California and severe weather in various areas of the country.

DOLLAR INDEX, USDX

The continuation of the offered stance in the Greenback coupled with declining US yields across the board underpin the extra rebound in Gold prices, which trade at shouting distance from their record highs. This is to be expected since the average includes data from the previous, lower priced days. As long as prices remain above the average there is strength in the market.

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